· Analysis updated 22:18 UTC
TSV St. Johann vs Pinzgau Saalfelden Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for TSV St. Johann and 1.60 for Pinzgau Saalfelden, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives TSV St. Johann the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
TSV St. Johann win
49.4% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
TSV St. Johann home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pinzgau Saalfelden away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TSV St. Johann to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 21% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for TSV St. Johann and 1.60 for Pinzgau Saalfelden, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–26.6%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
TSV St. Johann
- 2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Wohnbau Dietach · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Wallern / Marienkirchen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Pinzgau Saalfelden · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Kuchl · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T17:30:00.000Z · H vs LASK Juniors · 2-0 (W)
Pinzgau Saalfelden
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs SK Vorwarts Steyr · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Leonfelden · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Bad Schallerbach · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · A vs UFC Hallein · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gurten · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - North table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wallern / Marienkirchen | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 28 |
| 2 | LASK Juniors | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 27 |
| 3 | Wals-Grünau | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 26 |
| 4 | Gurten | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 24 |
| 5 | Kuchl | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 21 |
| 6 | Bad Schallerbach | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Grödig | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 19 |
| 8 | SK Vorwarts Steyr | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 18 |
| 9 | Leonfelden | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 17 |
| 10 | TSV St. Johann | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 16 |
| 11 | Ried II | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 12 | Seekirchen | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 13 | UFC Hallein | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 12 |
| 14 | Wohnbau Dietach | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -17 | 12 |
| 15 | Pinzgau Saalfelden | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -18 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is TSV St. Johann win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.