TSV St. Johann vs Wals-Grünau Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for TSV St. Johann and 1.72 for Wals-Grünau, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Wals-Grünau the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.53 – 1.72

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

TSV St. Johann home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wals-Grünau away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wals-Grünau to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 35% / 23% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for TSV St. Johann and 1.72 for Wals-Grünau, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

TSV St. Johann win35%

Draw23%

Wals-Grünau win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.2%
1–28.8%
2–17.8%
2–26.7%
0–16.7%

Recent form

TSV St. Johann

2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Wohnbau Dietach · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-21T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Wallern / Marienkirchen · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Pinzgau Saalfelden · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Kuchl · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-08T17:30:00.000Z · H vs LASK Juniors · 2-0 (W)

Wals-Grünau

2026-08-29T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Pinzgau Saalfelden · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kuchl · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-15T14:30:00.000Z · H vs LASK Juniors · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Grödig · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs SK Vorwarts Steyr · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - West table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Imst	13	10	1	2	18	31
2	Schwaz	13	10	1	2	13	31
3	Hohenems	13	10	0	3	17	30
4	Kitzbühel	13	8	1	4	10	25
5	Dornbirn	13	7	3	3	12	24
6	Röthis	13	7	3	3	4	24
7	Swarovski Tirol II	13	6	2	5	11	20
8	SK St. Johann	13	5	3	5	2	18
9	Fügen	13	5	1	7	-7	16
10	Lauterach	13	4	3	6	-3	15
11	SVG Reichenau	13	4	3	6	-5	15
12	Kufstein	13	3	5	5	1	14
13	Lochau	13	3	2	8	-15	11
14	Rheindorf Altach II	13	2	3	8	-14	9
15	Lustenau	13	1	4	8	-21	7
16	Wolfurt	13	1	1	11	-23	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.