· Analysis updated 08:00 UTC
TSV Steinbach vs FC 08 Homburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for TSV Steinbach and 1.43 for FC 08 Homburg, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives FC 08 Homburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
TSV Steinbach home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC 08 Homburg away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC 08 Homburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 34% / 26% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for TSV Steinbach and 1.43 for FC 08 Homburg, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–28.7%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–17.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 3.00 (model 45.3% vs market 31.0%, edge +14.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 3.00 | 31.0% | 45.3% | 2.21 | +14.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.62 | 57.9% | 59.2% | 1.69 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.70 | 33.3% | 33.5% | 2.99 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.7% | 25.7% | 3.89 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.20 | 40.9% | 40.8% | 2.45 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.40 | 67.0% | 66.5% | 1.50 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.1% | 74.3% | 1.35 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.35 | 69.0% | 54.7% | 1.83 | -14.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
TSV Steinbach
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Trier · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SGV Freiberg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC 08 Homburg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Astoria Walldorf · 2-1 (W)
FC 08 Homburg
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs TSV Steinbach · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hessen Kassel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaiserslautern II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs VfR Mannheim · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - SudWest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SGV Freiberg | 13 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 19 | 27 |
| 2 | VfR Aalen | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 27 |
| 3 | VfR Mannheim | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 26 |
| 4 | Stuttgarter Kickers | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 23 |
| 5 | Eintracht Trier | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 22 |
| 6 | Kickers Offenbach | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | FC 08 Homburg | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| 8 | SV Sandhausen | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Freiburg II | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 10 | TSV Steinbach | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Eintracht Frankfurt II | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Hessen Kassel | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 | FC Astoria Walldorf | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | FSV Frankfurt | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Kaiserslautern II | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 | FSV Mainz 05 II | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 11 |
| 17 | SSV Ulm 1846 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 18 | Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.