TSV Steinbach vs VfR Aalen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for TSV Steinbach and 1.50 for VfR Aalen, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives TSV Steinbach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

TSV Steinbach home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
VfR Aalen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

TSV Steinbach win38%

Draw24%

VfR Aalen win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.2%
1–28.4%
2–18.4%
0–17.5%
1–07.5%

Recent form

TSV Steinbach

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Trier · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SGV Freiberg · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC 08 Homburg · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Astoria Walldorf · 2-1 (W)

VfR Aalen

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Frankfurt · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kickers Offenbach · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SGV Freiberg · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs VfR Mannheim · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · TSV Steinbach 1-1 VfR Aalen (Regionalliga - SudWest)
2024-03-09T13:00:00.000Z · TSV Steinbach 2-3 VfR Aalen (Regionalliga - SudWest)
2023-09-02T12:00:00.000Z · TSV Steinbach 3-0 VfR Aalen (Regionalliga - SudWest)
2023-04-08T12:00:00.000Z · TSV Steinbach 0-0 VfR Aalen (Regionalliga - SudWest)
2022-09-30T17:00:00.000Z · TSV Steinbach 4-0 VfR Aalen (Regionalliga - SudWest)
2022-03-05T13:00:00.000Z · TSV Steinbach 2-0 VfR Aalen (Regionalliga - SudWest)
2021-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · TSV Steinbach 1-0 VfR Aalen (Regionalliga - SudWest)
2021-02-24T13:00:00.000Z · TSV Steinbach 3-3 VfR Aalen (Regionalliga - SudWest)
2020-09-02T16:30:00.000Z · TSV Steinbach 0-1 VfR Aalen (Regionalliga - SudWest)

Regionalliga - SudWest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SGV Freiberg	13	7	6	0	19	27
2	VfR Aalen	13	8	3	2	12	27
3	VfR Mannheim	13	7	5	1	13	26
4	Stuttgarter Kickers	13	7	2	4	4	23
5	Eintracht Trier	13	7	1	5	-1	22
6	Kickers Offenbach	13	6	3	4	6	21
7	FC 08 Homburg	12	5	4	3	1	19
8	SV Sandhausen	13	5	4	4	-2	19
9	Freiburg II	12	4	5	3	5	17
10	TSV Steinbach	13	4	4	5	0	16
11	Eintracht Frankfurt II	12	5	1	6	-1	16
12	Hessen Kassel	13	4	2	7	-7	14
13	FC Astoria Walldorf	13	3	4	6	-2	13
14	FSV Frankfurt	13	3	4	6	-3	13
15	Kaiserslautern II	13	2	5	6	-13	11
16	FSV Mainz 05 II	13	3	2	8	-13	11
17	SSV Ulm 1846	12	1	6	5	-7	9
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	13	2	3	8	-11	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.