TuBa Pohlheim vs Friedberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for TuBa Pohlheim and 1.80 for Friedberg, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives TuBa Pohlheim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

TuBa Pohlheim win

50.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.35 – 1.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

TuBa Pohlheim home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Friedberg away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TuBa Pohlheim to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 20% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.35 goals for TuBa Pohlheim and 1.80 for Friedberg, a combined 4.15 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

TuBa Pohlheim win51%

Draw20%

Friedberg win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals59%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

2–17.8%
2–27.1%
1–16.7%
3–16.1%
1–26.0%

Recent form

TuBa Pohlheim

2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Unter-Flockenbach · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Darmstadt 98 II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fernwald · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Baunatal · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hadamar · 2-0 (W)

Friedberg

2026-09-05T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Darmstadt 98 II · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Baunatal · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hadamar · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kassel · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Eddersheim · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-17T12:30:00.000Z · TuBa Pohlheim 0-3 Friedberg (Oberliga - Hessen)
2025-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · TuBa Pohlheim 1-6 Friedberg (Oberliga - Hessen)

Oberliga - Hessen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Eintracht Stadtallendorf	15	10	3	2	30	33
2	Unter-Flockenbach	15	10	2	3	15	32
3	Friedberg	15	8	3	4	10	27
4	Hadamar	15	8	3	4	8	27
5	Eddersheim	15	7	4	4	2	25
6	Darmstadt 98 II	15	7	3	5	16	24
7	TuBa Pohlheim	14	7	2	5	0	23
8	Fernwald	15	4	9	2	4	21
9	Vfb Marburg	15	6	3	6	-2	21
10	Rot-Weiß Walldorf	15	6	2	7	-7	20
11	Hünfelder SV	14	6	1	7	-1	19
12	Kassel	14	5	3	6	-10	18
13	Bayern Alzenau	15	4	5	6	-3	17
14	Baunatal	15	4	4	7	-7	16
15	1960 Hanau	15	3	4	8	-14	13
16	Hummetroth	14	3	3	8	-8	12
17	Kassel 2	15	3	3	9	-12	12
18	FC Gießen	15	2	3	10	-21	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is TuBa Pohlheim win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.