Stade Leburton · Analysis updated 16:20 UTC
Tubize vs Rochefort Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Tubize and 1.23 for Rochefort, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Tubize the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tubize win
53.7% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tubize home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Rochefort away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tubize to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 22% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Tubize and 1.23 for Rochefort, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–07.9%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
Tubize
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic Charleroi · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Albert Quévy-Mons · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rochefort · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Standard Liège II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Charleroi II · 1-0 (W)
Rochefort
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs K. Lierse S.K. · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Charleroi II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Onhaye · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tubize · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Habay-la-Neuve · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Meux | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | RWDM | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 3 | Rochefort | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Tubize | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 7 | Standard Liège II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Olympic Charleroi | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | Sporting Charleroi II | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Onhaye | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 11 | Habay-la-Neuve | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Flénu | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tubize win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.