Stade Leburton · Analysis updated 17:14 UTC
Tubize vs Sporting Charleroi II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Tubize and 0.96 for Sporting Charleroi II, a combined total of 2.19. That distribution gives Tubize the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.4% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tubize home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting Charleroi II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tubize to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 29% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Tubize and 0.96 for Sporting Charleroi II, a combined 2.19 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–011.2%
- 0–110.7%
- 2–08.5%
Recent form
Tubize
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Meux · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs RWDM · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Habay-la-Neuve · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Saint-Gilloise II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic Charleroi · 3-1 (W)
Sporting Charleroi II
- 2026-10-17T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Saint-Gilloise II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympic Charleroi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Onhaye · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Habay-la-Neuve · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rochefort · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rochefort | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Meux | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | RWDM | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Tubize | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 7 | Standard Liège II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Olympic Charleroi | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 12 |
| 9 | Sporting Charleroi II | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Onhaye | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 11 | Habay-la-Neuve | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Flénu | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.