· Analysis updated 17:51 UTC
Tucuman Central vs Boca Unidos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Tucuman Central and 1.53 for Boca Unidos, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Boca Unidos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Boca Unidos win
45.9% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tucuman Central home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Boca Unidos away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boca Unidos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 29% / 25% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Tucuman Central and 1.53 for Boca Unidos, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–28.0%
- 1–07.9%
Recent form
Tucuman Central
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Las Parejas · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento Resistencia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Unidos · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Independiente De Chivilcoy · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Escobar · 2-3 (L)
Boca Unidos
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Vilelas · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs El Linqueño · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Concepción · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tucuman Central · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Las Parejas · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Boca Unidos win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.