· Analysis updated 08:16 UTC
Tuggen vs Schötz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.22 expected goals for Tuggen and 1.53 for Schötz, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Tuggen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tuggen win
53.3% probability
Expected goals
2.22 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tuggen home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Schötz away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tuggen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 20% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.22 goals for Tuggen and 1.53 for Schötz, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 1–18.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–26.1%
Recent form
Tuggen
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Winterthur II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Schötz · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Collina d'Oro · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Mendrisio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kosova · 0-0 (D)
Schötz
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Muttenz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tuggen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bassecourt · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Wohlen · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Thun II · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Erste Liga Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Münsingen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | Prishtina Bern | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | Solothurn | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 4 | Stade Payerne | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Muttenz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Langenthal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Freienbach | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Mendrisio | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Buochs | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Dietikon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Portalban / Gletterens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Courtételle | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Naters | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Baden | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Locarno | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Tuggen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Bassecourt | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | Gossau | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 19 | Azzurri Bienne | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Muri-Gümligen | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | La Chaux-de-Fonds | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Meyrin | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Concordia Lausanne | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | FC Wohlen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Schötz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Delémont | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Zug | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | Kosova | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Wettswil-Bonstetten | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | Black Stars | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Lancy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | Widnau | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 33 | Chênois | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 34 | Thalwil | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 35 | Monthey | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 36 | Vevey Sports | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 37 | Coffrane | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 38 | Echallens | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tuggen win, at 53.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.