Kambah Stadium · Analysis updated 15:14 UTC
Tuggeranong United vs Belconnen United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.13 expected goals for Tuggeranong United and 1.25 for Belconnen United, a combined total of 4.37. That distribution gives Tuggeranong United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tuggeranong United win
74.4% probability
Expected goals
3.13 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tuggeranong United home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Belconnen United away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.0%
- 2–17.7%
- 3–06.4%
- 4–16.3%
- 2–06.2%
Recent form
Tuggeranong United
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Queanbeyan City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Canberra Juventus · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Brindabella · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-05T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Queanbeyan City · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Canberra Olympic · 2-1 (W)
Belconnen United
- 2026-08-22T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Canberra FC · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Canberra Olympic · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T07:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaro Panthers · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-08-01T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Cooma Tigers FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-25T06:30:00.000Z · H vs O'Connor Knights · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-11T05:00:00.000Z · Tuggeranong United 1-0 Belconnen United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2026-06-03T09:30:00.000Z · Tuggeranong United 3-1 Belconnen United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2021-07-25T08:00:00.000Z · Tuggeranong United 0-2 Belconnen United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2021-05-29T05:00:00.000Z · Tuggeranong United 1-1 Belconnen United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2021-04-11T05:00:00.000Z · Tuggeranong United 0-1 Belconnen United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2020-08-09T04:35:00.000Z · Tuggeranong United 0-0 Belconnen United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2019-08-03T05:00:00.000Z · Tuggeranong United 0-1 Belconnen United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2019-05-25T05:00:00.000Z · Tuggeranong United 3-0 Belconnen United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2018-07-01T04:00:00.000Z · Tuggeranong United 2-4 Belconnen United (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2018-04-14T06:30:00.000Z · Tuggeranong United 2-0 Belconnen United (Capital Territory NPL)
Capital Territory NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canberra FC | 20 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 52 |
| 2 | Monaro Panthers | 20 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 46 |
| 3 | Cooma Tigers FC | 20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 44 |
| 4 | Tuggeranong United | 20 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 42 |
| 5 | Queanbeyan City | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 6 | Canberra Juventus | 20 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 33 |
| 7 | Canberra Olympic | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 8 | O'Connor Knights | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | -15 | 20 |
| 9 | Belconnen United | 20 | 2 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 9 |
| 10 | Brindabella | 20 | 3 | 0 | 17 | -51 | 9 |
| 11 | Canberra White Eagles | 20 | 2 | 1 | 17 | -43 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tuggeranong United win, at 74.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.