Kambah Stadium · Analysis updated 14:07 UTC
Tuggeranong United vs Canberra Juventus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.99 expected goals for Tuggeranong United and 1.56 for Canberra Juventus, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Tuggeranong United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tuggeranong United win
47.9% probability
Expected goals
1.99 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tuggeranong United home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Canberra Juventus away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tuggeranong United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 22% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.99 goals for Tuggeranong United and 1.56 for Canberra Juventus, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.9%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–15.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Double chance — Home/Draw at 1.50 (model 69.5% vs market 61.1%, edge +8.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/DrawValue | 1.50 | 61.1% | 69.5% | 1.44 | +8.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 77.7% | 78.4% | 1.28 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 1.90 | 47.4% | 47.9% | 2.09 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 3.00 | 30.0% | 30.5% | 3.28 | +0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.36 | 68.8% | 68.8% | 1.45 | -0.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 3.00 | 31.2% | 31.2% | 3.21 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.5% | 21.6% | 4.63 | -0.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.50 | 61.1% | 52.1% | 1.92 | -9.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Tuggeranong United
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Queanbeyan City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Canberra Juventus · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Brindabella · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-05T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Queanbeyan City · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Canberra Olympic · 2-1 (W)
Canberra Juventus
- 2026-08-29T06:10:00.000Z · A vs Cooma Tigers FC · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Tuggeranong United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T06:30:00.000Z · H vs Queanbeyan City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Canberra White Eagles · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-02T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Canberra FC · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-30T05:00:00.000Z · Tuggeranong United 0-5 Canberra Juventus (Capital Territory NPL)
Capital Territory NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canberra FC | 20 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 52 |
| 2 | Monaro Panthers | 20 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 46 |
| 3 | Cooma Tigers FC | 20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 44 |
| 4 | Tuggeranong United | 20 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 42 |
| 5 | Queanbeyan City | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 6 | Canberra Juventus | 20 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 33 |
| 7 | Canberra Olympic | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 8 | O'Connor Knights | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | -15 | 20 |
| 9 | Belconnen United | 20 | 2 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 9 |
| 10 | Brindabella | 20 | 3 | 0 | 17 | -51 | 9 |
| 11 | Canberra White Eagles | 20 | 2 | 1 | 17 | -43 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tuggeranong United win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.