Daugavas stadions · Referee A. Golubevs · Analysis updated 06:34 UTC
Tukums vs FK Liepaja Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Tukums and 1.62 for FK Liepaja, a combined total of 3.01. That distribution gives FK Liepaja the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.9% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tukums home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FK Liepaja away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Liepaja to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 33% / 24% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Tukums and 1.62 for FK Liepaja, a combined 3.01 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.0%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–06.9%
Recent form
Tukums
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Riga · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Grobiņa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Super Nova · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ogre United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FS Jelgava · 1-4 (L)
FK Liepaja
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FS Jelgava · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Auda · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Daugavpils · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ogre United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rīgas FS · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Virsliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 34 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 60 | 86 |
| 2 | Riga | 33 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 59 | 79 |
| 3 | Auda | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 67 |
| 4 | BFC Daugavpils | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 48 |
| 5 | FK Liepaja | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 47 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | -18 | 38 |
| 7 | FS Jelgava | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | -23 | 32 |
| 8 | Grobiņa | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -31 | 29 |
| 9 | Tukums | 34 | 5 | 10 | 19 | -21 | 25 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 34 | 4 | 6 | 24 | -51 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.