· Referee K. Ratnieks · Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Tukums vs Grobiņa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.84 expected goals for Tukums and 0.96 for Grobiņa, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives Tukums the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tukums win
58.0% probability
Expected goals
1.84 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tukums home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tukums to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 23% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.84 goals for Tukums and 0.96 for Grobiņa, a combined 2.79 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.3%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.3%
Recent form
Tukums
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Grobiņa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Super Nova · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ogre United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FS Jelgava · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Auda · 0-3 (L)
Grobiņa
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Virsliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 30 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 49 | 74 |
| 2 | Riga | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 56 | 73 |
| 3 | Auda | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 61 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | -2 | 43 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 39 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -11 | 35 |
| 7 | FS Jelgava | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | -17 | 32 |
| 8 | Grobiņa | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -31 | 26 |
| 9 | Tukums | 31 | 5 | 9 | 17 | -17 | 24 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 31 | 4 | 6 | 21 | -46 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tukums win, at 58.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.