· Analysis updated 14:26 UTC
Tukums vs Super Nova Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Tukums and 1.68 for Super Nova, a combined total of 3.56. That distribution gives Tukums the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tukums home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tukums to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 22% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Tukums and 1.68 for Super Nova, a combined 3.56 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 69%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.0%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–05.4%
Recent form
Tukums
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Grobiņa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Super Nova · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ogre United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FS Jelgava · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Auda · 0-3 (L)
Super Nova
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 |
| 2 | Riga | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Riga Mariners | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 7 |
| 4 | Auda | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Spēks | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 6 | Leevon / PPK | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Valmiera / BSS | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Mārupe | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Rīgas FS | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | BFC Daugavpils | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 11 | JDFS Alberts | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | Aliance | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Salaspils | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Smiltene | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | JFK Ventspils | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Ogre United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | Grobiņa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Super Nova | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 19 | Ķekava / Auda | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 3 |
| 20 | JFC Jelgava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Rēzekne FA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Tukums | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | FK Liepaja | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | DSVK Traktors | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 25 | FS Jelgava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 26 | Skanste | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | Upesciema Warriors | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 28 | Parks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 29 | Valka | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 30 | Saldus NSS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 31 | Iecava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 32 | Lielupe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 33 | Union / Daugava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 34 | RFK/RFS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.