· Analysis updated 10:28 UTC
Tuna Luso PA U20 vs Santa Cruz U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for Tuna Luso PA U20 and 0.83 for Santa Cruz U20, a combined total of 1.92. That distribution gives Tuna Luso PA U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.8% probability
Expected goals
1.09 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Santa Cruz U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tuna Luso PA U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 31% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.09 goals for Tuna Luso PA U20 and 0.83 for Santa Cruz U20, a combined 1.92 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 30% and both teams to score at 37%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.1%
- 0–014.7%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.1%
- 2–08.8%
Recent form
Tuna Luso PA U20
Santa Cruz U20
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ibis Sport Club U20 · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico PE U20 · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Torres U20 · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Central SC U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Retrô U20 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-06T18:15:00.000Z · Tuna Luso PA U20 1-1 Santa Cruz U20 (São Paulo Youth Cup)
São Paulo Youth Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.