· Analysis updated 16:52 UTC
Tunisia U21 vs North Macedonia U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Tunisia U21 and 0.75 for North Macedonia U21, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Tunisia U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tunisia U21 win
65.7% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
North Macedonia U21 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tunisia U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 21% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Tunisia U21 and 0.75 for North Macedonia U21, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.1%
- 2–012.8%
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–08.3%
Recent form
Tunisia U21
North Macedonia U21
- 2026-08-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Türkiye U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tunisia U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs United States U20 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bulgaria U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Armenia U21 · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Mediterranean Games table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Algeria U21 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Tunisia U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | Morocco U20 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 |
| 4 | Türkiye U20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Albania U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Italy U18 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 7 | North Macedonia U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 1 |
| 8 | Kosovo U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tunisia U21 win, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.