Ahmad bin Ali Stadium · Referee J. Calderon · Analysis updated 10:14 UTC
Tunisia vs Syria Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Tunisia and 0.88 for Syria, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Tunisia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.0% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tunisia home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Syria away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tunisia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 30% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Tunisia and 0.88 for Syria, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–013.1%
- 0–111.6%
- 2–08.6%
Recent form
Tunisia
- 2026-09-28T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Botswana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-24T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Uganda · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-25T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Netherlands · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-21T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Japan · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-06-15T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Sweden · 1-5 (L)
Syria
- 2026-06-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Belarus · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-03-31T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Afghanistan · 5-1 (W)
- 2025-12-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Morocco · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-12-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Palestine · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-12-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Qatar · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Arab Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.