· Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
Tupy FC vs Grêmio Anápolis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Tupy FC and 1.02 for Grêmio Anápolis, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Tupy FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tupy FC win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tupy FC home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Grêmio Anápolis away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tupy FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 26% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Tupy FC and 1.02 for Grêmio Anápolis, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–012.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–18.3%
Recent form
Tupy FC
- 2026-10-09T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Trindade · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Verde · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Goianésia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Goiânia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Mineiros · 0-1 (L)
Grêmio Anápolis
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Verde · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Trindade · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Bom Jesus EC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Mineiros · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Goianésia · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Goiano - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rio Verde | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 36 |
| 2 | Goianésia | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 33 |
| 3 | Bom Jesus EC | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 31 |
| 4 | Mineiros | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 28 |
| 5 | Morrinhos | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 23 |
| 6 | Goiânia | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | -4 | 23 |
| 7 | Tupy FC | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | -1 | 22 |
| 8 | Crixás EC | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -10 | 16 |
| 9 | Grêmio Anápolis | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -7 | 15 |
| 10 | Trindade | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -13 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tupy FC win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.