· Analysis updated 10:21 UTC
Tupy FC vs Rio Verde Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Tupy FC and 1.10 for Rio Verde, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Rio Verde the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
76.0% probability
Expected goals
0.73 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tupy FC home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rio Verde away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.7%
- 0–016.1%
- 1–112.9%
- 1–011.7%
- 0–29.8%
Recent form
Tupy FC
- 2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Verde · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Goianésia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Goiânia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Mineiros · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Crixás EC · 0-1 (L)
Rio Verde
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Crixás EC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Tupy FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Grêmio Anápolis · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Bom Jesus EC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Goianésia · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-29T22:30:00.000Z · Tupy FC 0-1 Rio Verde (Goiano - 2)
- 2025-06-29T13:00:00.000Z · Tupy FC 2-2 Rio Verde (Goiano - 2)
- 2025-06-22T19:00:00.000Z · Tupy FC 0-0 Rio Verde (Goiano - 2)
- 2024-11-09T18:30:00.000Z · Tupy FC 1-1 Rio Verde (Goiano - 3)
- 2024-11-02T18:30:00.000Z · Tupy FC 2-2 Rio Verde (Goiano - 3)
- 2024-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · Tupy FC 1-0 Rio Verde (Goiano - 3)
- 2024-08-18T18:30:00.000Z · Tupy FC 1-0 Rio Verde (Goiano - 3)
Goiano - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rio Verde | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 32 |
| 2 | Bom Jesus EC | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 31 |
| 3 | Goianésia | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 30 |
| 4 | Mineiros | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 5 | Morrinhos | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 22 |
| 6 | Goiânia | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | -1 | 20 |
| 7 | Tupy FC | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 | Crixás EC | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | -7 | 16 |
| 9 | Trindade | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -10 | 12 |
| 10 | Grêmio Anápolis | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 76.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.