· Analysis updated 21:47 UTC
Turan vs Kapaz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Turan and 0.75 for Kapaz, a combined total of 1.82. That distribution gives Turan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
74.4% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Turan home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Turan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 32% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Turan and 0.75 for Kapaz, a combined 1.82 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 27% and both teams to score at 35%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.3%
- 0–016.3%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–112.3%
- 2–09.2%
Recent form
Turan
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Zira · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Araz · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sumqayıt · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kapaz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 0-0 (D)
Kapaz
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sumqayıt · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Qabala · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Turan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Sabah FA · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.