· Referee T. Qurbanov · Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Turan vs Qabala Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Turan and 0.48 for Qabala, a combined total of 1.91. That distribution gives Turan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Turan win
60.8% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 0.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Turan home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Turan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 27% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Turan and 0.48 for Qabala, a combined 1.91 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 30% and both teams to score at 29%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–021.2%
- 2–015.1%
- 0–014.8%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–17.3%
Recent form
Turan
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Zira · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Araz · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sumqayıt · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kapaz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 0-0 (D)
Qabala
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kapaz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Turan win, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.