· Referee K. Rahimov · Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Turan vs Sumqayıt Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Turan and 0.40 for Sumqayıt, a combined total of 1.60. That distribution gives Turan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 23% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 24%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Turan win
56.6% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Turan home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sumqayıt away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Turan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 31% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Turan and 0.40 for Sumqayıt, a combined 1.60 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–024.2%
- 0–020.2%
- 2–014.5%
- 1–19.7%
- 0–18.1%
Recent form
Turan
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Zira · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Araz · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sumqayıt · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kapaz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 0-0 (D)
Sumqayıt
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kapaz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Turan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Qarabag · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Turan win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 23% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.