Spain · Copa del Rey · 1st Round14:30

0 – 4

Wednesday, 1 November 2023

Estadio Municipal de La Albuera · Referee Mario Melero · Analysis updated 15:42 UTC

Turégano vs Celta Vigo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Turégano and 1.40 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Celta Vigo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.31 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Celta Vigo away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Celta Vigo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 35% / 26% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Turégano and 1.40 for Celta Vigo, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Turégano win35%

Draw26%

Celta Vigo win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.2%
0–19.3%
1–08.7%
1–28.5%
2–18.0%

Recent form

Turégano

2023-11-01T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 0-4 (L)
2023-10-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Santurtzi · 3-1 (W)
2022-10-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Velarde · 0-1 (L)

Celta Vigo

2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtic · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-18T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Elche · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander · 5-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Copa del Rey table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pinatar	2	2	0	0	11	6
2	Prat	2	2	0	0	9	6
3	Anaitasuna	2	2	0	0	8	6
4	Lebrijana	2	2	0	0	6	6
5	Atletico Calatayud	2	2	0	0	3	6
6	Alcazar	2	2	0	0	2	6
7	Hortaleza	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Ribadesella CF	2	1	1	0	1	4
9	Auriense	2	1	0	1	1	3
10	CD San Jose	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Maracena	2	0	2	0	0	2
12	Tavernes	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	Güímar	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Noja	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Talayuela	2	0	0	2	-2	0
16	Baztán	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Ceuta 6 de Junio	2	0	0	2	-6	0
18	Tedeón	2	0	0	2	-8	0
19	San Rafael	2	0	0	2	-9	0
20	Atlético Melilla	2	0	0	2	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.