Veritas Stadium · Referee Miikka Haapakoski, Finland · Analysis updated 15:21 UTC
Turku PS vs Ilves Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Turku PS and 1.53 for Ilves, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Turku PS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Turku PS win
46.6% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Turku PS home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Turku PS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 22% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Turku PS and 1.53 for Ilves, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 67%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.2%
Recent form
Turku PS
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mariehamn · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs SJK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gnistan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Turku · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs VPS · 3-1 (W)
Ilves
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mariehamn · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Haka · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Turku PS · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lahti · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FF Jaro · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 43 |
| 2 | Inter Turku | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 42 |
| 3 | HJK Helsinki | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 37 |
| 4 | Gnistan | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 36 |
| 5 | AC Oulu | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 34 |
| 6 | VPS | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 33 |
| 7 | Lahti | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 32 |
| 8 | Turku PS | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 31 |
| 9 | Ilves | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -3 | 25 |
| 10 | SJK | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -8 | 19 |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -26 | 15 |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -26 | 14 |
| 1 | Inter Turku | 28 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 14 | 52 |
| 2 | HJK Helsinki | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 51 |
| 3 | KuPS | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 48 |
| 4 | Gnistan | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 42 |
| 5 | AC Oulu | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | -2 | 40 |
| 6 | VPS | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 39 |
| 1 | Lahti | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 39 |
| 2 | Ilves | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 38 |
| 3 | Turku PS | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 32 |
| 4 | SJK | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -8 | 27 |
| 5 | FF Jaro | 27 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -27 | 21 |
| 6 | Mariehamn | 27 | 4 | 7 | 16 | -27 | 19 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Turku PS win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.