Turnov vs Chrudim II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.75 expected goals for Turnov and 1.28 for Chrudim II, a combined total of 5.03. That distribution gives Turnov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Turnov win

81.2% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.75 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Turnov home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Chrudim II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Turnov win81%

Draw10%

Chrudim II win8%

Double chance 1X

92%

Double chance 12

90%

Double chance X2

19%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals86%

Over 3.5 goals72%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

3–17.4%
4–16.9%
2–15.9%
3–05.8%
4–05.4%

Recent form

Turnov

2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kolín · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Police n/Metují · 5-3 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kosmonosy · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-06T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Chlumec nad Cidlinou · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vysoké Mýto · 0-2 (L)

Chrudim II

2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Přepeře · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Trutnov · 0-5 (L)
2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ústí nad Orlicí · 0-6 (L)
2026-08-08T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Vykan · 2-7 (L)
2026-07-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolín · 2-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-11T14:30:00.000Z · Turnov 2-1 Chrudim II (4. liga - Divizie C)
2025-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · Turnov 5-0 Chrudim II (4. liga - Divizie C)
2025-05-30T16:00:00.000Z · Turnov 4-1 Chrudim II (4. liga - Divizie C)
2024-11-02T14:30:00.000Z · Turnov 1-0 Chrudim II (4. liga - Divizie C)
2024-06-01T08:15:00.000Z · Turnov 2-2 Chrudim II (4. liga - Divizie C)
2023-11-05T13:00:00.000Z · Turnov 2-0 Chrudim II (4. liga - Divizie C)
2023-05-28T15:00:00.000Z · Turnov 1-2 Chrudim II (4. liga - Divizie C)
2022-10-28T13:00:00.000Z · Turnov 2-3 Chrudim II (4. liga - Divizie C)

4. liga - Divizie C table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vysoké Mýto	12	9	3	0	18	30
2	Přepeře	12	9	0	3	20	27
3	Kosmonosy	11	8	1	2	17	25
4	Trutnov	12	8	1	3	10	25
5	Turnov	12	7	2	3	12	23
6	Ústí nad Orlicí	12	6	3	3	10	21
7	Chlumec nad Cidlinou	12	6	3	3	6	21
8	Spartak Police n/Metují	11	5	1	5	-1	16
9	Kolín	11	4	3	4	2	15
10	Dvůr Králové	11	4	2	5	-3	14
11	Slavia Hradec Králové	12	4	2	6	-4	14
12	Hlinsko	12	4	1	7	-6	13
13	Vykan	12	3	2	7	-4	11
14	Svitavy	11	1	2	8	-17	5
15	Letohrad	11	0	2	9	-25	2
16	Chrudim II	12	0	2	10	-35	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Turnov win, at 81.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.

A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.