· Analysis updated 05:20 UTC
Turriff United vs Inverurie Loco Works Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Turriff United and 1.47 for Inverurie Loco Works, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives Inverurie Loco Works the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Turriff United home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Inverurie Loco Works away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inverurie Loco Works to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 34% / 25% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Turriff United and 1.47 for Inverurie Loco Works, a combined 2.77 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.2%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Turriff United
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Invergordon · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Huntly · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Inverurie Loco Works · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brora Rangers · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Strathspey Thistle · 1-2 (L)
Inverurie Loco Works
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rothes · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Formartine United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Invergordon · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lochee United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Deveronvale · 5-4 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Football League - Highland League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brora Rangers | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 42 | 39 |
| 2 | Inverurie Loco Works | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 32 |
| 3 | Formartine United | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 28 |
| 4 | Fraserburgh | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| 5 | Banks O' Dee | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 25 |
| 6 | Clachnacuddin | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 23 |
| 7 | Huntly | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 22 |
| 8 | Strathspey Thistle | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 22 |
| 9 | Forres Mechanics | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 21 |
| 10 | Deveronvale | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| 11 | Nairn County | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 21 |
| 12 | Turriff United | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | -1 | 20 |
| 13 | Buckie Thistle | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 19 |
| 14 | Keith | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 18 |
| 15 | Lossiemouth | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 18 |
| 16 | Invergordon | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -21 | 13 |
| 17 | Wick Academy | 16 | 3 | 1 | 12 | -27 | 10 |
| 18 | Rothes | 15 | 1 | 0 | 14 | -53 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.