TuS BW Königsdorf vs Hennef 05 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for TuS BW Königsdorf and 2.27 for Hennef 05, a combined total of 4.03. That distribution gives Hennef 05 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Hennef 05 win

49.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.76 – 2.27

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

TuS BW Königsdorf home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hennef 05 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hennef 05 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 30% / 20% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for TuS BW Königsdorf and 2.27 for Hennef 05, a combined 4.03 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

TuS BW Königsdorf win30%

Draw20%

Hennef 05 win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals77%

Over 3.5 goals57%

Both teams to score74%

Correct score

1–28.1%
1–17.1%
2–27.1%
2–16.2%
1–36.1%

Recent form

TuS BW Königsdorf

2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hennef 05 · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Wegberg-Beeck · 1-7 (L)
2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Hohkeppel · 0-7 (L)
2026-08-30T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bornheim · 1-4 (L)
2026-06-07T13:30:00.000Z · A vs VfL Vichttal · 2-0 (W)

Hennef 05

2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs TuS BW Königsdorf · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Wegberg-Beeck · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Hohkeppel · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bornheim · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-30T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Hürth · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Mittelrhein table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Wegberg-Beeck	9	7	1	1	12	22
2	SSV Merten	9	6	1	2	18	19
3	Eintracht Hohkeppel	9	5	2	2	8	17
4	Frechen	9	5	2	2	4	17
5	Düren Merzenich	9	5	1	3	2	16
6	Lindenthal-Hohenlind	9	4	3	2	1	15
7	Fortuna Köln II	8	4	1	3	4	13
8	VfL Vichttal	9	3	3	3	7	12
9	Bornheim	9	4	0	5	0	12
10	Siegburger SV	9	3	2	4	-1	11
11	Hürth	9	2	4	3	-4	10
12	Chlodwig Zulpich	9	3	1	5	-5	10
13	Hennef 05	9	3	1	5	-6	10
14	TuS BW Königsdorf	8	2	0	6	-23	6
15	Porz	9	1	2	6	-7	5
16	Neunkirchen-Seelscheid	9	1	2	6	-10	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hennef 05 win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.