TuS Hordel vs Erkenschwick Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for TuS Hordel and 1.44 for Erkenschwick, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Erkenschwick the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

66.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.29 – 1.44

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

TuS Hordel home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Erkenschwick away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Erkenschwick to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 34% / 26% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for TuS Hordel and 1.44 for Erkenschwick, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

TuS Hordel win34%

Draw26%

Erkenschwick win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.1%
0–19.4%
1–28.7%
1–08.5%
2–17.8%

Recent form

TuS Hordel

2026-10-11T13:15:00.000Z · A vs SpVgg Herne Horsthausen · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Vreden · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs ASC Dortmund · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hiltrup · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Verl II · 1-1 (D)

Erkenschwick

2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs ASC Dortmund · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hiltrup · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Verl II · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Arminia II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Clarholz · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-09T13:30:00.000Z · TuS Hordel 1-1 Erkenschwick (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gievenbeck	12	8	2	2	15	26
2	Vreden	12	7	3	2	7	24
3	Maaslingen	12	7	1	4	6	22
4	Eintracht Rheine	12	6	3	3	7	21
5	Arminia II	12	6	3	3	6	21
6	Lippstadt 08	12	6	2	4	2	20
7	ASC Dortmund	11	6	1	4	6	19
8	Erkenschwick	12	5	4	3	4	19
9	Sprockhovel	12	5	3	4	7	18
10	Preußen Münster II	12	5	3	4	3	18
11	Verl II	12	5	2	5	4	17
12	Westfalia Kinderhaus	11	4	3	4	-3	15
13	Hiltrup	12	4	1	7	-10	13
14	TuS Hordel	12	2	6	4	-4	12
15	SpVgg Herne Horsthausen	12	4	0	8	-14	12
16	Ennepetal	12	2	5	5	-10	11
17	Victoria Clarholz	12	2	2	8	-7	8
18	Schermbeck	12	0	2	10	-19	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.