· Analysis updated 15:14 UTC
TuS Hordel vs Vreden Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.88 expected goals for TuS Hordel and 1.95 for Vreden, a combined total of 4.83. That distribution gives TuS Hordel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
TuS Hordel win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
2.88 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
TuS Hordel home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vreden away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TuS Hordel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 17% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.88 goals for TuS Hordel and 1.95 for Vreden, a combined 4.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–16.5%
- 2–26.3%
- 3–16.2%
- 3–26.0%
- 1–14.5%
Recent form
TuS Hordel
- 2026-10-11T13:15:00.000Z · A vs SpVgg Herne Horsthausen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Vreden · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs ASC Dortmund · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hiltrup · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Verl II · 1-1 (D)
Vreden
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs TuS Hordel · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lippstadt 08 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Schermbeck · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Rheine · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sprockhovel · 4-4 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Westfalen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gievenbeck | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Vreden | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| 3 | Maaslingen | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | Eintracht Rheine | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | Lippstadt 08 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | ASC Dortmund | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 7 | Sprockhovel | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 18 |
| 8 | Arminia II | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Erkenschwick | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Preußen Münster II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Westfalia Kinderhaus | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | Verl II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 13 | Hiltrup | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 13 |
| 14 | SpVgg Herne Horsthausen | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 12 |
| 15 | TuS Hordel | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | Victoria Clarholz | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 8 |
| 17 | Ennepetal | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Schermbeck | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -19 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is TuS Hordel win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.