· Analysis updated 00:57 UTC
TuS Koblenz vs Auersmacher Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.42 expected goals for TuS Koblenz and 1.22 for Auersmacher, a combined total of 3.64. That distribution gives TuS Koblenz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
TuS Koblenz win
63.8% probability
Expected goals
2.42 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
TuS Koblenz home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TuS Koblenz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 18% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.42 goals for TuS Koblenz and 1.22 for Auersmacher, a combined 3.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 1–17.7%
- 2–07.7%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–06.3%
Recent form
TuS Koblenz
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Emmelshausen-Karbach · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Schott Mainz · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Eisbachtal · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Diefflen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mechtersheim · 2-1 (W)
Auersmacher
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-07T17:30:00.000Z · TuS Koblenz 4-0 Auersmacher (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)
- 2026-03-07T14:30:00.000Z · TuS Koblenz 4-4 Auersmacher (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)
- 2025-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · TuS Koblenz 2-0 Auersmacher (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)
- 2025-05-31T13:30:00.000Z · TuS Koblenz 3-1 Auersmacher (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)
- 2024-11-16T13:00:00.000Z · TuS Koblenz 2-1 Auersmacher (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)
- 2023-05-14T12:00:00.000Z · TuS Koblenz 2-1 Auersmacher (Oberliga - Promotion Round)
- 2023-04-08T12:00:00.000Z · TuS Koblenz 1-1 Auersmacher (Oberliga - Promotion Round)
Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mechtersheim | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 31 |
| 2 | Schott Mainz | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 29 |
| 3 | Pirmasens | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 27 |
| 4 | Gonsenheim | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 25 |
| 5 | Gau-Odernheim | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 23 |
| 6 | TuS RW Koblenz | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 7 | FV Engers 07 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 8 | TuS Koblenz | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| 9 | FC Emmelshausen-Karbach | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 22 |
| 10 | Wormatia Worms | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 21 |
| 11 | RW Wittlich | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 21 |
| 12 | Elversberg II | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 19 |
| 13 | Hertha Wiesbach | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
| 14 | Auersmacher | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 15 |
| 15 | Cosmos Koblenz | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -9 | 13 |
| 16 | Ahrweiler | 14 | 1 | 5 | 8 | -14 | 8 |
| 17 | Diefflen | 14 | 1 | 5 | 8 | -22 | 8 |
| 18 | Eisbachtal | 14 | 0 | 1 | 13 | -42 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is TuS Koblenz win, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.