· Analysis updated 15:25 UTC
Tusker vs KVZ Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.64 expected goals for Tusker and 0.66 for KVZ, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Tusker the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tusker win
61.2% probability
Expected goals
1.64 – 0.66
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tusker home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
KVZ away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tusker to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 24% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.64 goals for Tusker and 0.66 for KVZ, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.5%
- 2–013.5%
- 1–110.8%
- 0–010.1%
- 2–18.9%
Recent form
Tusker
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli Wad Medani · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahli Wad Medani · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · H vs KVZ · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayon Sports · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Hilal Omdurman · 0-2 (L)
KVZ
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Asswehly · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Asswehly · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tusker · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Hilal Omdurman · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-07-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayon Sports · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CECAFA Club Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rayon Sports | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | GOR Mahia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Jamus | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Vipers | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | APR | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 6 |
| 7 | Simba | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Singida Black Stars | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Tusker | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Mogadishu City | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Haras Al-Jumhuri | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 12 | KVZ | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tusker win, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.