Tusker vs Sofapaka Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Tusker and 0.91 for Sofapaka, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Tusker the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tusker win

54.2% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.63 – 0.91

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tusker home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sofapaka away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tusker to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 25% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Tusker and 0.91 for Sofapaka, a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Tusker win54%

Draw25%

Sofapaka win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–012.9%
1–111.7%
2–010.5%
2–19.5%
0–07.9%

Recent form

Tusker

2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli Wad Medani · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahli Wad Medani · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · H vs KVZ · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayon Sports · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Hilal Omdurman · 0-2 (L)

Sofapaka

2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kariobangi Sharks · 0-6 (L)
2026-05-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs KCB · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Shabana · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Posta Rangers FC · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mathare United · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

FKF Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mathare United	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Ulinzi Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Tusker	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	GOR Mahia	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	AFC Leopards	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	KCB	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Posta Rangers FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Bandari	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Homeboyz	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Police	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Migori Youth	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Shabana	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	APS Bomet	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Murang'a SEAL	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Mombasa Elite	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Mara Sugar	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Nairobi United	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	3K	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tusker win, at 54.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.