Stadio Leporaia · Analysis updated 06:10 UTC
Tuttocuoio vs Fiorenzuola Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Tuttocuoio and 1.26 for Fiorenzuola, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Fiorenzuola the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.7% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tuttocuoio home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fiorenzuola away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fiorenzuola to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 31% / 28% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Tuttocuoio and 1.26 for Fiorenzuola, a combined 2.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 0–112.3%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–09.8%
- 1–28.3%
Recent form
Tuttocuoio
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Trevigliese · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pro Sesto · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sant'Angelo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lentigione · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresso · 0-2 (L)
Fiorenzuola
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Piacenza · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Villa Valle · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Caldiero Terme · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brusaporto · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Pro Palazzolo · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 24 |
| 2 | Pro Patria | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Castellanzese | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Lentigione | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | Pro Sesto | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | USD Casatese | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Città di Varese | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 8 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Sant'Angelo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Solbiatese | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Correggese | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Pavia | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 13 | Crema | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Varesina | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Coriano | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Oltrepò | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Arconatese | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -14 | 3 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.