Tuzla City vs Čelik Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Tuzla City and 1.56 for Čelik, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Čelik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Čelik win

45.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.56

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tuzla City home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Čelik away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Čelik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 29% / 25% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Tuzla City and 1.56 for Čelik, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Tuzla City win29%

Draw25%

Čelik win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.8%
0–19.8%
1–29.2%
0–27.7%
1–07.6%

Recent form

Tuzla City

2026-06-07T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Tomislav · 0-4 (L)
2026-05-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Travnik · 0-4 (L)
2026-05-24T15:30:00.000Z · A vs GOŠK Gabela · 1-4 (L)
2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Čelik · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Hadžići · 0-2 (L)

Čelik

2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Sarajevo · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Bijeljina · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs BSK Banja Luka · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-01T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sloga Doboj · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1st League - FBiH table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Posušje	11	8	3	0	10	27
2	Travnik	11	8	1	2	12	25
3	Sloboda Tuzla	11	6	3	2	10	21
4	Stupčanica Olovo	11	6	2	3	13	20
5	Igman Konjic	11	5	4	2	4	19
6	GOŠK Gabela	10	5	2	3	5	17
7	Bratstvo Gračanica	10	3	5	2	0	14
8	TOŠK Tešanj	10	4	2	4	0	14
9	Jedinstvo Bihać	11	3	4	4	1	13
10	Vitez	11	3	3	5	-5	12
11	Zvijezda Gradačac	11	3	2	6	1	11
12	Radnik Hadžići	11	3	1	7	-6	10
13	Budućnost Banovići	11	2	4	5	-9	10
14	Rudar Kakanj	10	2	2	6	-8	8
15	Čapljina	11	2	2	7	-13	8
16	Tomislav	11	2	2	7	-15	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Čelik win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.