De Grolsch Veste · Analysis updated 16:03 UTC
Twente vs Groningen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Twente and 1.40 for Groningen, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Twente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Twente win
57.7% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Twente home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Groningen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Twente to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 20% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Twente and 1.40 for Groningen, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.0%
- 3–17.0%
- 2–06.5%
- 2–26.4%
Recent form
Twente
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Thun · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Sittard · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 3-2 (W)
Groningen
- 2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PEC Zwolle · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · A vs GO Ahead Eagles · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 19 |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 18 |
| 5 | Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Groningen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Utrecht | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 11 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 16 | Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Twente win, at 57.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.