Twente vs Pafos Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for Twente and 1.70 for Pafos, a combined total of 4.03. That distribution gives Twente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Twente win

52.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.33 – 1.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Twente home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pafos away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Twente to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 20% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.33 goals for Twente and 1.70 for Pafos, a combined 4.03 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Twente win52%

Draw20%

Pafos win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals77%

Over 3.5 goals57%

Both teams to score74%

Correct score

2–18.2%
1–17.1%
2–27.0%
3–16.4%
1–26.0%

Recent form

Twente

2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Sittard · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen · 7-0 (W)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs ADO Den Haag · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 1-0 (W)

Pafos

2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AEL · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Larnaca · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-03T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Nicosia · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Karmiotissa · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Twente win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.