De Grolsch Veste · Referee A. Lindhout · Analysis updated 19:38 UTC
Twente vs PEC Zwolle Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.70 expected goals for Twente and 0.85 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Twente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws roughly 24% of the time.
Model pick
Twente to Win
76.3% probability
Expected goals
2.70 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
24%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.5%
- 3–09.4%
- 2–18.9%
- 3–18.0%
- 1–07.8%
Why the model likes this
Twente home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Twente to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 14% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.70 goals for Twente and 0.85 for PEC Zwolle, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 53%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Odds comparison
Indicative prices for the main markets.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Home | 1.23 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | 5.90 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Away | 11.00 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 1.11 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | 6.25 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.36 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 3.10 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 1.85 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.90 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 3.00 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 4.5 | 1.38 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 5.5 | 5.25 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 5.5 | 1.15 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | Yes | 1.67 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | No | 2.10 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 1.05 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.11 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 3.90 | 10Bet |
Recent form
Twente
- 2026-08-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunajska Streda · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-09T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunajska Streda · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Genk · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Ferencvarosi TC · 2-2 (D)
PEC Zwolle
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 3 | GO Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Twente | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Cambuur | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | Utrecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.