De Grolsch Veste · Referee Allard Lindhout, Netherlands · Analysis updated 17:49 UTC
Twente vs PEC Zwolle Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.70 expected goals for Twente and 0.85 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Twente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Twente win
76.3% probability
Expected goals
2.70 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Twente home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
PEC Zwolle away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Twente to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 14% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.70 goals for Twente and 0.85 for PEC Zwolle, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
24%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.5%
- 3–09.4%
- 2–18.9%
- 3–18.0%
- 1–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Goals — Under 3.5 at 1.90 (model 52.8% vs market 49.3%, edge +3.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5Value | 1.90 | 49.3% | 52.8% | 1.89 | +3.5 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.10 | 44.3% | 46.7% | 2.14 | +2.4 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 3.10 | 30.5% | 31.4% | 3.18 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 11.00 | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.75 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 1.23 | 75.7% | 76.3% | 1.31 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.05 | 90.3% | 90.7% | 1.10 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.11 | 85.4% | 85.6% | 1.17 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.90 | 24.3% | 23.7% | 4.22 | -0.6 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.36 | 69.5% | 68.6% | 1.46 | -0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.90 | 15.8% | 14.4% | 6.94 | -1.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.7% | 53.3% | 1.88 | -2.4 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 1.85 | 50.7% | 47.2% | 2.12 | -3.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Twente
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lincoln Red Imps FC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Thun · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Sittard · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen · 7-0 (W)
PEC Zwolle
- 2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T10:15:00.000Z · H vs GO Ahead Eagles · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Groningen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord · 0-7 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 24 |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 20 |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 18 |
| 5 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Groningen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Twente win, at 76.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.