Sportpark Schreurserve · Referee D. Steenis · Analysis updated 02:14 UTC
Twente W vs ADO Den Haag W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Twente W and 1.18 for ADO Den Haag W, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Twente W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Twente W win
66.2% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Twente W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ADO Den Haag W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.9%
- 3–17.8%
- 1–17.4%
- 3–06.6%
Recent form
Twente W
- 2026-10-04T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:15:00.000Z · A vs AZ W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV/Eindhoven W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen W · 5-1 (W)
ADO Den Haag W
- 2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs De Graafschap W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle W · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-23T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Twente W · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-08-16T14:45:00.000Z · A vs AZ W · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T14:45:00.000Z · Twente W 7-1 ADO Den Haag W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2026-04-05T14:45:00.000Z · Twente W 0-1 ADO Den Haag W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2025-11-02T15:45:00.000Z · Twente W 5-0 ADO Den Haag W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2025-03-02T15:45:00.000Z · Twente W 7-0 ADO Den Haag W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2025-02-12T17:45:00.000Z · Twente W 4-0 ADO Den Haag W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2024-03-30T13:00:00.000Z · Twente W 1-0 ADO Den Haag W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2023-10-21T12:00:00.000Z · Twente W 3-2 ADO Den Haag W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2023-04-02T10:15:00.000Z · Twente W 2-0 ADO Den Haag W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2022-10-28T17:30:00.000Z · Twente W 1-0 ADO Den Haag W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2022-05-06T17:30:00.000Z · Twente W 3-1 ADO Den Haag W (Eredivisie Women)
Eredivisie Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Twente W | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 21 |
| 2 | Ajax W | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | PSV/Eindhoven W | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | De Graafschap W | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 5 | AZ W | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 12 |
| 6 | Heerenveen W | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle W | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | ADO Den Haag W | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -13 | 7 |
| 9 | Feyenoord W | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 6 |
| 10 | Utrecht W | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Twente W win, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.