Sportpark Schreurserve · Referee M. Janssen · Analysis updated 16:00 UTC
Twente W vs PEC Zwolle W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.32 expected goals for Twente W and 1.03 for PEC Zwolle W, a combined total of 5.35. That distribution gives Twente W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 89%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 89% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Twente W win
89.2% probability
Expected goals
4.32 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Twente W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
PEC Zwolle W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Twente W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 89%, against 89% / 7% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.32 goals for Twente W and 1.03 for PEC Zwolle W, a combined 5.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
11%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–17.1%
- 4–06.9%
- 3–16.6%
- 3–06.4%
- 5–16.1%
Recent form
Twente W
- 2026-10-04T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:15:00.000Z · A vs AZ W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV/Eindhoven W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen W · 5-1 (W)
PEC Zwolle W
- 2026-10-04T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · H vs De Graafschap W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht W · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs ADO Den Haag W · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Twente W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 18 |
| 2 | Ajax W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | AZ W | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 12 |
| 4 | PSV/Eindhoven W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Heerenveen W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 6 | ADO Den Haag W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 7 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 8 | De Graafschap W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 9 | Feyenoord W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 10 | Utrecht W | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Twente W win, at 89.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 89% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.