· Analysis updated 10:51 UTC
Txantrea vs Beti Onak Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Txantrea and 1.20 for Beti Onak, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Txantrea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Txantrea win
46.7% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Txantrea home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Beti Onak away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.8%
- 0–17.3%
Recent form
Txantrea
- 2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Pamplona · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Izarra · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cortes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Beti Kozkor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bidezarra · 2-2 (D)
Beti Onak
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs San Juan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Cirbonero · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Avance Ezcabarte · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Valle Egüés · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Avance Ezcabarte · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-18T19:00:00.000Z · Txantrea 1-2 Beti Onak (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2025-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · Txantrea 2-0 Beti Onak (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2025-02-22T15:00:00.000Z · Txantrea 1-1 Beti Onak (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2024-10-12T13:45:00.000Z · Txantrea 1-0 Beti Onak (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2024-03-28T10:00:00.000Z · Txantrea 0-1 Beti Onak (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2023-11-11T15:00:00.000Z · Txantrea 2-1 Beti Onak (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2023-02-25T15:30:00.000Z · Txantrea 1-3 Beti Onak (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2022-10-29T14:30:00.000Z · Txantrea 0-3 Beti Onak (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2022-03-12T16:00:00.000Z · Txantrea 1-1 Beti Onak (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2021-11-06T15:30:00.000Z · Txantrea 0-1 Beti Onak (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | Mutilvera | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Beti Kozkor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Gazte Berriak | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Subiza | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Doneztebe FT | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 7 | San Juan | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | Avance Ezcabarte | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 9 | Aoiz | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Valle Egüés | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Txantrea | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Beti Onak | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Cirbonero | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 14 | Huarte | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Pamplona | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Cantolagua | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -16 | 6 |
| 17 | Cortes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 5 |
| 18 | Bidezarra | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Txantrea win, at 46.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.