· Analysis updated 08:45 UTC
Txantrea vs Bidezarra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Txantrea and 0.80 for Bidezarra, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Txantrea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Txantrea win
59.5% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Txantrea home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bidezarra away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Txantrea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 24% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Txantrea and 0.80 for Bidezarra, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.9%
- 2–011.9%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Txantrea
- 2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Pamplona · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Izarra · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cortes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Beti Kozkor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bidezarra · 2-2 (D)
Bidezarra
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mutilvera · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Subiza · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Beti Onak · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Txantrea · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Izarra · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | Mutilvera | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Beti Kozkor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Gazte Berriak | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Subiza | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Doneztebe FT | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 7 | San Juan | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | Avance Ezcabarte | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 9 | Aoiz | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Valle Egüés | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Txantrea | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Beti Onak | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Cirbonero | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 14 | Huarte | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Pamplona | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Cantolagua | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -16 | 6 |
| 17 | Cortes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 5 |
| 18 | Bidezarra | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Txantrea win, at 59.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.