· Analysis updated 16:33 UTC
Txantrea vs Cirbonero Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Txantrea and 0.79 for Cirbonero, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Txantrea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Txantrea win
56.6% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Txantrea home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cirbonero away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.8%
- 2–011.8%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–19.2%
Recent form
Txantrea
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Izarra · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cortes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Beti Kozkor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bidezarra · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs San Juan · 1-0 (W)
Cirbonero
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mutilvera · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Subiza · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Beti Onak · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Txantrea · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Izarra · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · Txantrea 1-1 Cirbonero (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2026-03-29T15:00:00.000Z · Txantrea 0-1 Cirbonero (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2025-11-16T15:30:00.000Z · Txantrea 1-1 Cirbonero (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2025-02-01T15:00:00.000Z · Txantrea 1-1 Cirbonero (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2024-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · Txantrea 1-1 Cirbonero (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2024-02-24T15:00:00.000Z · Txantrea 0-0 Cirbonero (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2023-10-08T15:00:00.000Z · Txantrea 0-2 Cirbonero (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2022-04-09T15:00:00.000Z · Txantrea 0-0 Cirbonero (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2021-12-12T15:30:00.000Z · Txantrea 1-2 Cirbonero (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | Mutilvera | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Beti Kozkor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Gazte Berriak | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | San Juan | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 6 | Avance Ezcabarte | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Subiza | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Aoiz | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Txantrea | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Doneztebe FT | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Valle Egüés | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Beti Onak | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Cirbonero | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Huarte | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Pamplona | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Cortes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 5 |
| 17 | Bidezarra | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Cantolagua | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -17 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Txantrea win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.