· Analysis updated 03:10 UTC
Txantrea vs Cortes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Txantrea and 1.03 for Cortes, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Txantrea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Txantrea win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Txantrea home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cortes away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.5%
- 0–16.6%
Recent form
Txantrea
- 2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Pamplona · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Izarra · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cortes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Beti Kozkor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bidezarra · 2-2 (D)
Cortes
- 2026-10-17T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Beti Onak · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Txantrea · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Izarra · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pamplona · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Beti Kozkor · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · Txantrea 0-0 Cortes (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2026-05-09T15:30:00.000Z · Txantrea 3-1 Cortes (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2026-01-10T14:30:00.000Z · Txantrea 0-2 Cortes (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2025-01-25T15:30:00.000Z · Txantrea 3-0 Cortes (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2024-09-14T14:30:00.000Z · Txantrea 0-2 Cortes (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2024-02-17T15:00:00.000Z · Txantrea 0-2 Cortes (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2023-09-30T15:00:00.000Z · Txantrea 1-1 Cortes (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2023-04-22T15:00:00.000Z · Txantrea 0-2 Cortes (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2022-12-17T16:00:00.000Z · Txantrea 3-1 Cortes (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
- 2022-02-12T16:00:00.000Z · Txantrea 2-0 Cortes (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | Mutilvera | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Beti Kozkor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Gazte Berriak | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Subiza | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Doneztebe FT | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 7 | San Juan | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | Avance Ezcabarte | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 9 | Aoiz | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Valle Egüés | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Txantrea | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Beti Onak | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Cirbonero | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 14 | Huarte | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Pamplona | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Cantolagua | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -16 | 6 |
| 17 | Cortes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 5 |
| 18 | Bidezarra | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Txantrea win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.