Geolog Stadium · Analysis updated 06:36 UTC
Tyumen vs Irtysh Omsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Tyumen and 1.35 for Irtysh Omsk, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Tyumen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tyumen win
54.2% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tyumen home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Irtysh Omsk away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–19.1%
- 2–07.0%
- 1–06.8%
- 3–16.5%
Recent form
Tyumen
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zenit 2 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Miass · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-12T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Volna Nizhegorodskaya · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Stavropol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amkar · 0-2 (L)
Irtysh Omsk
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Moskva II · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Zenit 2 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Miass · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Stavropol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tyumen · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · Tyumen 5-0 Irtysh Omsk (Second League A - Division A Silver)
- 2023-05-14T12:00:00.000Z · Tyumen 2-2 Irtysh Omsk (Second League - Group 4)
- 2022-11-01T12:00:00.000Z · Tyumen 4-0 Irtysh Omsk (Second League - Group 4)
- 2022-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · Tyumen 3-0 Irtysh Omsk (Second League - Group 4)
- 2022-07-17T14:00:00.000Z · Tyumen 0-3 Irtysh Omsk (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-05-05T14:00:00.000Z · Tyumen 7-2 Irtysh Omsk (Second League - Group 4)
- 2021-08-21T11:00:00.000Z · Tyumen 4-2 Irtysh Omsk (Second League - Group 4)
Second League A - Division A Silver table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 32 |
| 2 | Amkar | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Tyumen | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Torpedo Miass | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Dinamo Stavropol | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 11 |
| 6 | Dinamo Moskva II | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 8 |
| 7 | Irtysh Omsk | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -17 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tyumen win, at 54.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.