Geolog Stadium · Analysis updated 12:47 UTC
Tyumen vs Urozhay Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Tyumen and 0.83 for Urozhay, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Tyumen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tyumen win
59.9% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tyumen home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Urozhay away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tyumen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 23% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Tyumen and 0.83 for Urozhay, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.2%
- 2–011.7%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.4%
Recent form
Tyumen
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Irtysh Omsk · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zenit 2 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Miass · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Stavropol · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Amkar · 3-2 (W)
Urozhay
- 2026-06-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zenit 2 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tyumen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amkar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Kirov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Bryansk · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League A - Division A Silver table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 32 |
| 2 | Amkar | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Tyumen | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Torpedo Miass | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Dinamo Stavropol | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 11 |
| 6 | Dinamo Moskva II | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 8 |
| 7 | Irtysh Omsk | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -17 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tyumen win, at 59.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.