HaShalom Stadium · Analysis updated 18:57 UTC
Tzeirey Tamra vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Tzeirey Tamra and 4.00 for Hapoel Umm al-Fahm, a combined total of 5.50. That distribution gives Hapoel Umm al-Fahm the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm win
80.2% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 4.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tzeirey Tamra home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hapoel Umm al-Fahm to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 9% / 10% / 80% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Tzeirey Tamra and 4.00 for Hapoel Umm al-Fahm, a combined 5.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 89% and both teams to score at 75%, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
20%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–36.5%
- 1–46.5%
- 1–55.2%
- 1–24.9%
- 2–34.9%
Recent form
Tzeirey Tamra
- 2026-09-30T16:55:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-23T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Beit Shean · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T11:25:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Nesher · 1-6 (L)
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Tzeirey Tamra · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Alef table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tira | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Ironi Nesher | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 19 |
| 3 | Shimshon Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Dimona | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 5 | Holon Yermiyahu | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Beitar Nahariya | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | Maccabi Kiryat Malachi | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 8 | Hapoel Hadera | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 9 | Hapoel Ramat HaSharon | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Hapoel Ironi Karmiel | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 11 | Hapoel Herzliya | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 13 | Hapoel Nazareth Illit | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 14 | Hapoel Beit Shean | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 15 | Hapoel Sderot | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 16 | Hapoel Azor | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 17 | Ironi Beit Shemesh | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 18 | FC Jerusalem | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 19 | Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 20 | Maccabi Ashdod | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 21 | Maccabi K. Ata Bialik | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 22 | Maccabi Yavne | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 23 | Maccabi Neve Sha'anan | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 24 | Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 25 | Hapoel Marmorek | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 26 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 27 | Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 28 | Hapoel Bnei Musmus | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 29 | Hapoel Mahane Yehuda | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 30 | Tzeirey Tamra | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 6 |
| 31 | Hapoel Ironi Arraba | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -15 | 5 |
| 32 | Kfar Saba 1928 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 4 |
| 33 | Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 4 |
| 34 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -4 | 3 |
| 35 | Tzeirey Tira | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -15 | 0 |
| 36 | Nordia Jerusalem | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -22 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hapoel Umm al-Fahm win, at 80.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.