U. Catolica vs D. La Serena Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for U. Catolica and 1.20 for D. La Serena, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives U. Catolica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

U. Catolica win

63.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.40 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

U. Catolica home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
D. La Serena away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates U. Catolica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 19% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for U. Catolica and 1.20 for D. La Serena, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

U. Catolica win64%

Draw19%

D. La Serena win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

36%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

2–19.4%
1–17.9%
2–07.9%
3–17.6%
1–06.6%

Recent form

U. Catolica

2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Union La Calera · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-23T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Union La Calera · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Palestino · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-05T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Everton de Vina · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-01T00:45:00.000Z · H vs O'Higgins · 3-2 (W)

D. La Serena

2026-10-24T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Concepción · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Everton de Vina · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Universidad de Chile · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Nublense · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-31T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Union La Calera · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Colo Colo	25	17	4	4	23	55
2	Universidad de Chile	24	13	6	5	22	45
3	U. Catolica	24	13	3	8	15	42
4	Everton de Vina	24	11	6	7	13	39
5	Palestino	25	11	5	9	3	38
6	Deportes Limache	25	11	4	10	9	37
7	Nublense	25	9	8	8	-8	35
8	D. La Serena	25	8	9	8	-3	33
9	Coquimbo Unido	24	9	5	10	2	32
10	Concepción	25	9	5	11	-3	32
11	Huachipato	24	9	5	10	-6	32
12	A. Italiano	24	7	8	9	-5	29
13	O'Higgins	25	8	4	13	-10	28
14	Cobresal	25	7	5	13	-10	26
15	Universidad de Concepcion	25	6	5	14	-23	23
16	Union La Calera	25	5	6	14	-19	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is U. Catolica win, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.