Claro Arena · Referee W. Roldan · Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
U. Catolica vs Estudiantes L.P. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for U. Catolica and 0.65 for Estudiantes L.P., a combined total of 1.65. That distribution gives U. Catolica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 23% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
76.8% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
U. Catolica home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Estudiantes L.P. away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates U. Catolica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 34% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for U. Catolica and 0.65 for Estudiantes L.P., a combined 1.65 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–019.2%
- 1–019.2%
- 0–112.5%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–09.6%
Recent form
U. Catolica
- 2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Union La Calera · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-23T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Union La Calera · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Palestino · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Everton de Vina · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T00:45:00.000Z · H vs O'Higgins · 3-2 (W)
Estudiantes L.P.
- 2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia M. · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Lanus · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Corinthians · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-19T00:30:00.000Z · U. Catolica 0-3 Estudiantes L.P. (CONMEBOL Libertadores)
- 2026-08-12T00:30:00.000Z · U. Catolica 1-1 Estudiantes L.P. (CONMEBOL Libertadores)
CONMEBOL Libertadores table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Estudiantes L.P. | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Independiente Medellin | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 4 | Cusco | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
| 1 | Coquimbo Unido | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 2 | Deportes Tolima | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 3 | Club Nacional | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 4 | Universitario | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 1 | Independ. Rivadavia | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Fluminense | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 3 | Bolívar | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 4 | Deportivo La Guaira | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
| 1 | U. Catolica | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Cruzeiro | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Barcelona SC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 1 | Corinthians | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 2 | Platense | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Santa Fe | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 4 | Penarol | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 1 | Cerro Porteno | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Sporting Cristal | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 4 | Junior | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 1 | LDU de Quito | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Mirassol | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 3 | Lanus | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 4 | Always Ready | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Rosario Central | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | UCV | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 4 | Libertad Asuncion | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 76.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 23%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.