San Carlos de Apoquindo · Referee Diego Flores Seguel · Analysis updated 15:32 UTC
U. Catolica vs Nublense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for U. Catolica and 1.45 for Nublense, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives U. Catolica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
U. Catolica win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
U. Catolica home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nublense away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates U. Catolica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for U. Catolica and 1.45 for Nublense, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
U. Catolica
- 2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Union La Calera · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-23T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Union La Calera · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Palestino · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Everton de Vina · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T00:45:00.000Z · H vs O'Higgins · 3-2 (W)
Nublense
- 2026-09-26T20:30:00.000Z · H vs D. Puerto Montt · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T21:00:00.000Z · A vs D. Puerto Montt · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Everton de Vina · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs D. La Serena · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Limache · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 54 |
| 2 | U. Catolica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 42 |
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 36 |
| 5 | Palestino | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 36 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 33 |
| 7 | Nublense | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | -3 | 32 |
| 8 | Concepción | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | -1 | 31 |
| 9 | D. La Serena | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | -4 | 30 |
| 10 | Coquimbo Unido | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 29 |
| 11 | A. Italiano | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | -5 | 28 |
| 12 | Huachipato | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -8 | 28 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | -8 | 27 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 24 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | -22 | 22 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 23 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -21 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is U. Catolica win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.