Estadio Olímpico Universitario · Referee Victor Alfonso Caceres Hernandez, Mexico · Analysis updated 20:59 UTC
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Atletico San Luis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for U.N.A.M. - Pumas and 1.40 for Atletico San Luis, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives U.N.A.M. - Pumas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.7% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico San Luis away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–18.5%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.3%
Recent form
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
- 2026-10-25T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-22T03:10:00.000Z · A vs Santos Laguna · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlante FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico San Luis · 2-3 (L)
Atletico San Luis
- 2026-10-24T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlante FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-21T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Queretaro · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos Laguna · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2-3 Atletico San Luis (Liga MX)
- 2026-04-18T01:00:00.000Z · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2-0 Atletico San Luis (Liga MX)
- 2025-10-23T03:05:00.000Z · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0-1 Atletico San Luis (Liga MX)
- 2025-02-03T01:00:00.000Z · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3-2 Atletico San Luis (Liga MX)
- 2024-10-20T18:00:00.000Z · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3-0 Atletico San Luis (Liga MX)
- 2024-01-20T03:00:00.000Z · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1-3 Atletico San Luis (Liga MX)
- 2023-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3-2 Atletico San Luis (Liga MX)
- 2023-04-09T18:00:00.000Z · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3-1 Atletico San Luis (Liga MX)
- 2022-08-19T02:05:00.000Z · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2-3 Atletico San Luis (Liga MX)
- 2022-04-21T00:00:00.000Z · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0-2 Atletico San Luis (Liga MX)
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 5 | Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 22 |
| 6 | Atlas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 21 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 8 | Club Queretaro | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 19 |
| 10 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Puebla | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -6 | 14 |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -24 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.